Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Jose Quinonez
88%
12%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
24-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
10-5
W2
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Wood: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Quinonez: 34 sig / 1 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Jose Quinonez
49
Sig strikes landed
34
118
Sig strikes attempted
92
70
Total strikes landed
45
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
156s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
24-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W4
Jose Quinonez
"Teco"
10-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—