Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Danny Roberts
Claudio Silva
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
32
Age
Δ 5y
36
19-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-4
W2
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Roberts: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 19 sig / 3 TD
Danny Roberts
Claudio Silva
35
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
48
Total strikes landed
51
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.1
0.8
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
73s
Control time
229s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Danny Roberts
"Hot Chocolate"
19-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
W3
Claudio Silva
"Hannibal"
15-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—