Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Gunnar Nelson
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-6-1
W6
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Edwards: 31 sig / 2 TD ·
Nelson: 9 sig / 3 TD
Leon Edwards
Gunnar Nelson
33
Sig strikes landed
18
57
Sig strikes attempted
38
58
Total strikes landed
34
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
199s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—