Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Darren Till
Jorge Masvidal
57%
43%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
35-18
L1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Till: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Masvidal: 35 sig / 1 TD
Darren Till
Jorge Masvidal
42
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
95
54
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
88s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Darren Till
"The Gorilla"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—