Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jack Marshman
John Phillips
70%
30%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
23-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-12
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Marshman: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Phillips: 32 sig / 0 TD
Jack Marshman
John Phillips
38
Sig strikes landed
30
98
Sig strikes attempted
80
47
Total strikes landed
38
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
41s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
L2
John Phillips
"The Welsh Wrecking Machine"
22-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—