Prelims1
Bantamweight
Louis Smolka vs Matt Schnell
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
·Intrust Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Matt Schnell
67%
33%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
18-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smolka: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Schnell: 14 sig / 1 TD
Louis Smolka
Matt Schnell
52
Sig strikes landed
45
107
Sig strikes attempted
105
66
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
200s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—