Back to UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Prelims1 Featherweight

Grant Dawson vs Julian Erosa

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos ·Intrust Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Julian Erosa
75% 25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dawson: 57 sig / 6 TD · Erosa: 49 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Julian Erosa
32
Sig strikes landed
26
64
Sig strikes attempted
59
57
Total strikes landed
41
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
214s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Grant Dawson

"KGD"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
L2

Julian Erosa

"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
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