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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Marion Reneau vs Yana Santos

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marion Reneau
Yana Santos
21% 79%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
42
Age
Δ 12y
29
9-9-1
Career record
Δ 22 pp
18-8
L1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Reneau: 58 sig / 1 TD · Santos: 98 sig / 1 TD
Marion Reneau
Yana Santos
35
Sig strikes landed
48
81
Sig strikes attempted
97
65
Total strikes landed
79
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marion Reneau

"The Belizean Bruiser"
9-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database 9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
D UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
W UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
Blue corner
W1

Yana Santos

18-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
L UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya