Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Niko Price
73%
27%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
34-17-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-12
W1
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Means: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Price: 32 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Niko Price
47
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
86
59
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
18 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—