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Main Heavyweight

Blagoy Ivanov vs Ben Rothwell

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos ·Intrust Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Blagoy Ivanov
Ben Rothwell
32% 68%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
19-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
39-15
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ivanov: 72 sig / 0 TD · Rothwell: 70 sig / 0 TD
Blagoy Ivanov
Ben Rothwell
35
Sig strikes landed
42
138
Sig strikes attempted
105
54
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Blagoy Ivanov

"Baga"
19-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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Blue corner
L1

Ben Rothwell

39-15
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
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W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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W UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
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