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Prelims1 Welterweight

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Sergio Moraes

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Anthony Rocco Martin
Sergio Moraes
76% 24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 7y
37
18-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-6-1
W3
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martin: 50 sig / 0 TD · Moraes: 19 sig / 3 TD
Anthony Rocco Martin
Sergio Moraes
37
Sig strikes landed
29
89
Sig strikes attempted
69
52
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
186s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Anthony Rocco Martin

18-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
W UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
L UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Blue corner
W2

Sergio Moraes

"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
L UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…