Main
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch vs Omari Akhmedov
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
·Intrust Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Omari Akhmedov
31%
69%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
21-14
Career record
Δ 12 pp
21-6-2
L1
Current streak
D1
19
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Boetsch: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Akhmedov: 52 sig / 0 TD
Tim Boetsch
Omari Akhmedov
28
Sig strikes landed
31
60
Sig strikes attempted
78
38
Total strikes landed
49
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
D1
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
21-6-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
D
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—