Main
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush vs Drew Dober
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
·Intrust Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Drew Dober
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
24-8-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
30-15
W1
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Dariush: 37 sig / 2 TD ·
Dober: 31 sig / 0 TD
Beneil Dariush
Drew Dober
43
Sig strikes landed
44
98
Sig strikes attempted
104
56
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Drew Dober
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—