Prelims1
Lightweight
Rustam Khabilov vs Diego Ferreira
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos
·O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rustam Khabilov
Diego Ferreira
75%
25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
25-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
20-7
W6
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Khabilov: 43 sig / 3 TD ·
Ferreira: 83 sig / 0 TD
Rustam Khabilov
Diego Ferreira
37
Sig strikes landed
29
89
Sig strikes attempted
87
61
Total strikes landed
36
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
234s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W3
Diego Ferreira
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—