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Damir Ismagulov vs Joel Alvarez

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos ·O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Damir Ismagulov
Joel Alvarez
58% 42%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ismagulov: 64 sig / 0 TD · Alvarez: 38 sig / 0 TD
Damir Ismagulov
Joel Alvarez
28
Sig strikes landed
22
37
Sig strikes attempted
42
47
Total strikes landed
43
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
279s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Damir Ismagulov

"Qazaq"
25-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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Blue corner

Joel Alvarez

"El Fenomeno"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26