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Gian Villante vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos ·O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Michal Oleksiejczuk
23% 77%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 10y
24
18-14
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-9
W1
Current streak
—
14
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Villante: 9 sig / 0 TD · Oleksiejczuk: 14 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Michal Oleksiejczuk
52
Sig strikes landed
54
107
Sig strikes attempted
116
64
Total strikes landed
63
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
43s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Gian Villante

18-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
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L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
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Blue corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

"Hussar"
22-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-0