Main
Heavyweight
Stefan Struve vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos
·O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
80%
20%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
75"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
33-14
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-10-1
L3
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Struve: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Rogerio de Lima: 25 sig / 0 TD
Stefan Struve
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
23
Sig strikes landed
28
38
Sig strikes attempted
44
34
Total strikes landed
44
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
41s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
8%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
72%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—