Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Petr Yan
27%
73%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
22-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
21-5
L1
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dodson: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Yan: 80 sig / 2 TD
John Dodson
Petr Yan
53
Sig strikes landed
66
127
Sig strikes attempted
143
54
Total strikes landed
83
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
45s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
22-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W3
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—