Main
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz vs Thiago Santos
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos
·O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Thiago Santos
73%
27%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
30-11-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-11
W4
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Blachowicz: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 52 sig / 1 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Thiago Santos
47
Sig strikes landed
35
93
Sig strikes attempted
84
61
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
115s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Jan Blachowicz
30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—