🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Tyron Woodley vs Kamaru Usman
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Kamaru Usman
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
20-7-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-4
W3
Current streak
W8
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Woodley: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Usman: 141 sig / 2 TD
Tyron Woodley
Kamaru Usman
32
Sig strikes landed
73
83
Sig strikes attempted
137
46
Total strikes landed
176
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
49s
Control time
475s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
Blue corner
W8
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—