🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Anthony Smith
87%
13%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
76"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
29-1
Career record
Δ 33 pp
39-22
W8
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 125 sig / 3 TD ·
Smith: 36 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Anthony Smith
91
Sig strikes landed
36
142
Sig strikes attempted
109
139
Total strikes landed
44
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
450s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 14-0
Last 5
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W3
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—