Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Ben Askren
47%
53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
37
Age
Δ 2y
35
L1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lawler: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Askren: 0 sig / 1 TD
Robbie Lawler
Ben Askren
66
Sig strikes landed
74
122
Sig strikes attempted
146
78
Total strikes landed
67
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
70s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
Ben Askren
"Funky"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35