Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Zhang Weili
21%
79%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
30
Age
30
15-9
Career record
Δ 25 pp
27-4
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Weili: 63 sig / 2 TD
Tecia Pennington
Zhang Weili
46
Sig strikes landed
66
106
Sig strikes attempted
135
64
Total strikes landed
95
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
15-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
Blue corner
W2
Zhang Weili
"Magnum"
27-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—