Prelims1
Lightweight
Scott Holtzman vs Nik Lentz
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Nik Lentz
37%
63%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
15-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
31-12-2
W3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holtzman: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 71 sig / 5 TD
Scott Holtzman
Nik Lentz
50
Sig strikes landed
49
103
Sig strikes attempted
101
78
Total strikes landed
73
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
6.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
15-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—