Prelims2
Bantamweight
Renan Barao vs Luke Sanders
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Luke Sanders
88%
12%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
34-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
13-6
L3
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Barao: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Sanders: 39 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Luke Sanders
60
Sig strikes landed
50
136
Sig strikes attempted
114
76
Total strikes landed
62
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
34-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
Blue corner
L1
Luke Sanders
"Cool Hand"
13-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—