Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Andrea Lee
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Andrea Lee
41%
59%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
7-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-11
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evans-Smith: 66 sig / 2 TD ·
Lee: 111 sig / 0 TD
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Andrea Lee
47
Sig strikes landed
63
133
Sig strikes attempted
135
64
Total strikes landed
97
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
81s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
6%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ashlee Evans-Smith
"Rebel Girl"
7-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andrea Lee
"KGB"
14-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—