Main
Featherweight
Alex Caceres vs Kron Gracie
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Kron Gracie
73%
27%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
W1
Current streak
—
19
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Caceres: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Gracie: 2 sig / 1 TD
Alex Caceres
Kron Gracie
61
Sig strikes landed
41
110
Sig strikes attempted
110
73
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
19 fights · 9-9
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
Kron Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31