Main
Welterweight
Vicente Luque vs Bryan Barberena
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Bryan Barberena
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
25-12-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-12
W3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Luque: 163 sig / 0 TD ·
Barberena: 169 sig / 0 TD
Vicente Luque
Bryan Barberena
49
Sig strikes landed
54
105
Sig strikes attempted
98
60
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
19-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—