Main
Women's Strawweight
Cortney Casey vs Cynthia Calvillo
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cortney Casey
Cynthia Calvillo
48%
52%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
11-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Casey: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Calvillo: 82 sig / 0 TD
Cortney Casey
Cynthia Calvillo
51
Sig strikes landed
51
132
Sig strikes attempted
122
68
Total strikes landed
77
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
91s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
11-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Cynthia Calvillo
10-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—