Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs David Teymur
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
David Teymur
91%
9%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 0y
30
38-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-2
W3
Current streak
W5
22
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Oliveira: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Teymur: 26 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
David Teymur
39
Sig strikes landed
34
85
Sig strikes attempted
74
39
Total strikes landed
36
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
22 fights · 13-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
W5
David Teymur
9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—