Back to UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Main Welterweight

Demian Maia vs Lyman Good

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 ·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Lyman Good
47% 53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
41
Age
Δ 8y
34
28-12
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-6
L3
Current streak
W1
22
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Maia: 0 sig / 2 TD · Good: 0 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Lyman Good
28
Sig strikes landed
39
65
Sig strikes attempted
84
52
Total strikes landed
51
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
9.0
Takedowns attempted
-0.7
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
248s
Control time
26s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Demian Maia

28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database 22 fights · 14-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
Blue corner
W1

Lyman Good

"Cyborg"
22-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—