Main
Women's Strawweight
Livinha Souza vs Sarah Frota
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Livinha Souza
Sarah Frota
67%
33%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Souza: 23 sig / 4 TD ·
Frota: 32 sig / 0 TD
Livinha Souza
Sarah Frota
25
Sig strikes landed
17
44
Sig strikes attempted
33
48
Total strikes landed
37
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
185s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Livinha Souza
"The Brazilian Gangsta"
15-4
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
Sarah Frota
"A Treta"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32