Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Renato Moicano
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Renato Moicano
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
33-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-7-1
W1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Aldo: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Moicano: 24 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Renato Moicano
66
Sig strikes landed
64
146
Sig strikes attempted
141
79
Total strikes landed
84
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W2
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—