Main
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Marlon Moraes
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Marlon Moraes
61%
39%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
36
Age
Δ 6y
31
29-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-10-1
W4
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Assuncao: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Moraes: 10 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Marlon Moraes
40
Sig strikes landed
40
104
Sig strikes attempted
103
50
Total strikes landed
43
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
45s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
Blue corner
W3
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—