Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lando Vannata
Marcos Mariano
72%
28%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
D1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Vannata: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Mariano: 3 sig / 0 TD
Lando Vannata
Marcos Mariano
40
Sig strikes landed
44
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
56
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Lando Vannata
"Groovy"
12-8-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 1-3
Last 5
D
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
Marcos Mariano
"Dhalsim"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32