Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Anderson Silva
76%
24%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
30
Age
Δ 14y
44
25-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
35-11
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Adesanya: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 31 sig / 0 TD
Israel Adesanya
Anderson Silva
49
Sig strikes landed
32
106
Sig strikes attempted
81
57
Total strikes landed
36
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
49s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Anderson Silva
"The Spider"
35-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
44
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—