Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Devonte Smith
Dong Hyun Ma
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
30
12-4
Career record
Δ 20 pp
17-11-3
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Ma: 1 sig / 0 TD
Devonte Smith
Dong Hyun Ma
30
Sig strikes landed
28
74
Sig strikes attempted
56
36
Total strikes landed
35
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Devonte Smith
"King Kage"
12-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
W3
Dong Hyun Ma
"Maestro"
17-11-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—