Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Shane Young
Austin Arnett
54%
46%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
Δ 2y
27
14-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-6
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Young: 120 sig / 0 TD ·
Arnett: 77 sig / 0 TD
Shane Young
Austin Arnett
55
Sig strikes landed
57
126
Sig strikes attempted
133
76
Total strikes landed
66
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
135s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Shane Young
"Smokin'"
14-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
W1
Austin Arnett
17-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—