Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jimmy Crute
Sam Alvey
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
23
Age
Δ 10y
33
15-4-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
33-19-1
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Crute: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Crute
Sam Alvey
27
Sig strikes landed
24
64
Sig strikes attempted
40
43
Total strikes landed
35
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
6.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
321s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jimmy Crute
15-4-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—