Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kai Kara-France
Raulian Paiva
46%
54%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
26
Age
Δ 3y
23
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kara-France: 58 sig / 2 TD ·
Paiva: 67 sig / 0 TD
Kai Kara-France
Raulian Paiva
38
Sig strikes landed
47
77
Sig strikes attempted
98
62
Total strikes landed
68
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
282s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
Raulian Paiva
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23