Main
Women's Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa vs Nadia Kassem
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
·Rod Laver Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Montana De La Rosa
Nadia Kassem
63%
37%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
24
Age
Δ 1y
23
14-9-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
6-2
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
De La Rosa: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Kassem: 5 sig / 0 TD
Montana De La Rosa
Nadia Kassem
40
Sig strikes landed
38
96
Sig strikes attempted
73
75
Total strikes landed
42
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
247s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Montana De La Rosa
14-9-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
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Blue corner
W1
Nadia Kassem
6-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—