Main
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez vs Dustin Ortiz
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Dustin Ortiz
69%
31%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
29-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 21 sig / 7 TD ·
Ortiz: 49 sig / 3 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Dustin Ortiz
50
Sig strikes landed
45
114
Sig strikes attempted
115
67
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
118s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W3
Dustin Ortiz
20-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—