Main
Women's Flyweight
Paige VanZant vs Rachael Ostovich
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paige VanZant
Rachael Ostovich
77%
23%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
8-6
Career record
Δ 21 pp
4-7
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
VanZant: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Ostovich: 10 sig / 4 TD
Paige VanZant
Rachael Ostovich
30
Sig strikes landed
25
65
Sig strikes attempted
52
55
Total strikes landed
36
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
240s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
8-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Rachael Ostovich
4-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—