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Gregor Gillespie vs Yancy Medeiros

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gregor Gillespie
Yancy Medeiros
73% 27%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-1
Career record
Δ 31 pp
15-9
W5
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
12

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gillespie: 51 sig / 6 TD · Medeiros: 1 sig / 0 TD
Gregor Gillespie
Yancy Medeiros
32
Sig strikes landed
24
68
Sig strikes attempted
65
51
Total strikes landed
32
2.9
Takedowns landed
-0.2
6.1
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
274s
Control time
13s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W5

Gregor Gillespie

"The Gift"
15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
W UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
Blue corner
L1

Yancy Medeiros

15-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
W UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
W UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic