Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Greg Hardy
Allen Crowder
49%
51%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 2
Hardy: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Crowder: 12 sig / 1 TD
Greg Hardy
Allen Crowder
33
Sig strikes landed
26
65
Sig strikes attempted
54
53
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L1
Allen Crowder
"Pretty Boy"
10-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
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