Prelims2
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad vs Geoff Neal
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Geoff Neal
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
25-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-8
W4
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muhammad: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Neal: 71 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Geoff Neal
50
Sig strikes landed
47
119
Sig strikes attempted
115
71
Total strikes landed
54
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
174s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W2
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—