Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Walt Harris
63%
37%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
40
Age
Δ 4y
36
34-25
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-10
L2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Arlovski: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Harris: 24 sig / 1 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Walt Harris
29
Sig strikes landed
30
58
Sig strikes attempted
63
40
Total strikes landed
40
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
57s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34-25
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
Blue corner
W1
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
14-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—