Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Alexander Volkanovski
20%
80%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
19-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
29-4
W1
Current streak
W5
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Mendes: 28 sig / 3 TD ·
Volkanovski: 54 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Alexander Volkanovski
32
Sig strikes landed
47
76
Sig strikes attempted
84
42
Total strikes landed
85
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
60s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
Blue corner
W5
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—