Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Ryan Hall
34%
66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
40
Age
Δ 6y
34
16-15-2
Career record
Δ 35 pp
10-2
L5
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Penn: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Hall: 6 sig / 0 TD
BJ Penn
Ryan Hall
36
Sig strikes landed
48
87
Sig strikes attempted
95
49
Total strikes landed
61
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L5
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
9 fights · 1-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Ryan Hall
"The Wizard"
10-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—