Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Andre Ewell
79%
21%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
24-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Wood: 61 sig / 2 TD ·
Ewell: 15 sig / 0 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Andre Ewell
38
Sig strikes landed
41
111
Sig strikes attempted
116
50
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
-19s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
24-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andre Ewell
"Mr. Highlight"
18-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—